Project Director: Portia Murray
portia@objective.is

Overview

Transformative Simulations Research (TSR) uses wargaming and advanced simulations to model how human individuals, groups, and societies may respond to the development of transformative artificial intelligence (TAI) capabilities.

By rigorously simulating potential TAI scenarios from multiple perspectives, TSR aims to provide policymakers and technologists with invaluable foresight for steering advanced AI toward robustly beneficial outcomes that safeguard human flourishing.

Simulations will employ cutting-edge techniques spanning computational game environments, real-time human-led exercises, and generative AI tools to systematically map the vast possibility space of TAI development trajectories. By integrating interdisciplinary expertise across fields like AI, psychology, political science, and ethics, TSR aims to produce empirically-grounded insights into the cognitive patterns, social dynamics, and ethical pitfalls arising as advanced AI intersects human actors. Our holistic scenario modeling enables proactive investigation of both concerning hazards and constructive governance frameworks as TAI tools enter society.

Goals

Concrete outputs will include:

• Mapping of observed human cognitive patterns, judgments, and behavioral responses across different classes of simulated TAI disruptions

• Taxonomies of social dynamics, institutional stresses, and ethical issues manifesting in TAI scenario simulations

• Identified policy guardrails and governance frameworks for reducing risks from concerning scenario trajectories

TSR will launch its first interactive scenario simulation open to the public towards the end of 2024.

The project benefits from oversight and mentorship from members of the Foresight Institute and Future of Life Institute.

Those interested in staying updated on TSR’s work or exploring collaboration opportunities can email portia@objective.is.